The race for the U.S. Senate in Texas between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is heating up, drawing national attention and sparking a flurry of claims, accusations, and rumors. With the election drawing closer, the rhetoric has escalated, featuring high-profile endorsements, leaked audio, and even a mock campaign “tipline.” Here is a fact-checked breakdown of the latest developments in this highly competitive race.
The “Missing in Action” Controversy: Where is James Talarico?
The Claim: Donald Trump and Ken Paxton have repeatedly claimed that James Talarico went “missing in action,” with the former president suggesting “bad rumors” were circulating and mocking Talarico’s diet. Capitalizing on this, Paxton launched a toll-free “tipline” asking Texans to report sightings of his Democratic rival.
The Facts: James Talarico did step away from the campaign trail starting in late September. However, there is no mystery surrounding his absence. Talarico’s campaign confirmed that he contracted the flu and isolated himself to prevent spreading the illness to vulnerable individuals. Talarico remained active on social media during his recovery and was recently spotted in public attending the Austin City Limits music festival. The claims implying he disappeared for nefarious reasons are politically motivated exaggerations.
The Debate Stand-off
The Claim: There has been ongoing friction regarding televised debates, with both sides pointing fingers.
The Facts: Talarico has consistently pushed for debates, agreeing to four televised match-ups. Historically, Ken Paxton did not debate his opponents during his three successful campaigns for Texas Attorney General and has avoided committing to a debate in this Senate race. Interestingly, at a recent San Antonio rally, Donald Trump publicly called for a debate between the two candidates. Talarico quickly capitalized on the remark, posting on social media that he agreed with Trump and that the “ball’s in your court.” As of now, Paxton’s campaign has not officially agreed to face Talarico on a debate stage.
Leaked Audio: Paxton on Medicare and Social Security
The Claim: Ken Paxton privately supports cutting federal benefit programs if elected to the Senate.
The Facts: Recent leaked audio from a private campaign event reveals Paxton suggesting that cuts to mandatory federal spending are necessary to reduce the national deficit. In the recording, Paxton stated, “Making some reasonable cuts to mandatory spending — you’re gonna have to do it… We have to suck it up.” Mandatory spending largely encompasses programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. While Paxton has rarely discussed his stance on these entitlements publicly on the campaign trail, the leaked audio confirms his private position on reducing funding for these programs to balance the budget.
Fundraising and Polling: A Historically Tight Race
The Facts: The financial battle is breaking state records. Paxton recently reported a personal-best $18 million fundraising haul for the third quarter of 2024. Despite this strong showing, he has historically lagged behind Talarico, who posted massive hauls of $30 million in the second quarter and $27 million in the first quarter of the year.
Polling indicates a fiercely tight race, a rarity for a statewide election in Texas. Recent surveys show conflicting leads, with a New York Times/Siena College poll showing Talarico up by 6 points, while a recent YouGov poll shows Paxton leading by a similar margin.
Bottom Line
As the Texas Senate race enters its final stretch, voters are navigating a chaotic media landscape filled with political theater. While Paxton focuses on tying his campaign to Donald Trump and criticizing his opponent’s brief illness-related absence, Talarico is capitalizing on Paxton’s refusal to debate and his controversial private statements on federal spending. Both candidates remain locked in one of the most closely watched and well-funded races in the country.